The Case for a Theory of Change
Over the last few months, I’ve gone down a few rabbit holes. The most useful being the concept of a theory of change. Popular in the nonprofit world, it’s a planning approach that starts with a goal and works backward to map out all the conditions that need to be true for that outcome to happen.
For example, if the goal is to increase enrollment among adult learners, a theory of change would identify what needs to shift—like perceptions of value, employer partnerships, or class scheduling—to make that outcome achievable.
What I love about this model is that it captures the complexity of the problem community colleges are trying to solve. It’s a continual exercise of “if this, then that”.
If we need employers to hire our graduates, then they need to know about us. If they know about us, we need them to engage with our college. When they engage with our college, we need them to receive clear opportunities for engagement. When they receive clear opportunities for engagement, we need them to sign up for the engagement. And so on and so on and so on.
The “More Marketing” Trap
However, in planning a marketing campaign, implementing a new technology, or launching a new program (all areas that require strategic communications & marketing), I often see community colleges start with a theory of action.
Instead of working backward from the outcome we want—like increased enrollment or reengaged adult learners—we jump straight into activity.
With a campaign. A deadline. A tactic. A flyer. A video.
But if & when the results fall short, we rarely stop to ask:
Were the right conditions even in place for this to work?
It’s no wonder the to-do lists seem long and the years seem short.
The Three Preconditions for Marketing Success
Instead of jumping into a theory of action, if we started at the end goal (not the marketing end goal, but the ultimate end goal) and repeatedly asked, “Concretely, how does one achieve that?”—the patterns become clear.
And in almost every case, community college enrollment marketing, positioning, program launches, and sustained leverage hinge on three key conditions:
- People need to trust you.
- They need to be able to find you or see you where they show up.
- And they need to be able to act without friction (or at least, less friction).
In other words: Reputation. Visibility. Conversion.
These are the conditions for marketing success (or failure). And if even one of them is off, your best marketing efforts will struggle to gain traction no matter how creative or well-executed or well-funded (although this certainly helps!).
No singular tactic is going to carry the weight alone.
You could run the most compelling ad campaign in the world.
But if your reputation is shaky? That ad won’t land.
If your programs are buried three clicks deep on your website? No one will convert.
If your brand isn’t visible in the places your audience actually spends time? They won’t even know you exist.
Build the Conditions, Then the Campaign
This isn’t about slowing down or making things more complicated. It’s about being honest about what it actually takes to achieve a marketing goal.
Most colleges try to fix engagement problems with more content, more outreach, or more urgency.
But what you really need is more alignment.
When you step back and start from the outcome—then work backward—you begin to see the real strategy:
Not just what to do next, but what must be true for that next step to succeed.
Reputation. Visibility. Conversion.
These are the things that quietly make or break your efforts. They’re the conditions that determine whether your efforts can actually deliver.
If one of them is off, even your best ideas fall flat. And that’s the frustrating part, it’s not that the work wasn’t there. It’s that the conditions for success weren’t.
And that’s the shift:
From marketing as output…To marketing as POSITIONING – creating the right conditions for success through context-setting, system-tuning, and momentum-building. Because once the right conditions are in place, the marketing part gets a whole lot easier.
This post is the first in a series where I’ll break down each of these three lenses: reputation, visibility, and conversion. We’ll dig into how to spot the gaps, what levers you can pull, and how to set yourself up for campaigns that actually work.